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Stop the Expansion

Few Canadians are aware how fast the tar sands have grown. In its obsession with rapid expansion, the Alberta government has approved more than 100 tar sands projects covering 92,000 square kilometres of northern boreal forest, with another 100 projects covering an additional 50,000 square kilometres proposed or under review. Current industry plans will expand production more than 3X from current levels, all but guaranteeing the destruction of the earth's climate.

However, the indefinite delay of Total's Josyln North tar sands mine is a clear indication that industry’s growth forecasts are not accurate and a sign that the continued expansion of the tar sands is anything but inevitable. Tar sands are high cost, high risk, and high carbon. Josyln North’s mothballing is the latest in a developing trend that doesn't bode well for the industry's future. The economics of the tar sands are marginal today, and nd in a carbon constrained world, they become increasingly unviable.

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Overview:
- The tar sands are the largest industrial project on Earth, and it's growing fast
Key Problems:
- Industry plans to triple productionby 2030
- Dramatic negative impacts are being ignored  
- There are literally no limits on continued expansion
Current Status:
- Current planned expansion is in line with global demand scenarios for a 6 degree global temperature rise.
- Cancellation of Total's Joclyn North tar sands mine indicates expansion is not inevitable. 

Today, tar sands development produces 1.9 million barrels of tar sands oil per day (BPD), up from 300,000 BPD in 1999. But the oil industry is just getting started. The rapid approval and construction of tar sands projects will more than triple output over the next 17 years. Industry estimates indicate production capacity will explode to more than five million BPD by 2030. The tar sands industry already has announced plans to increase production to nine million barrels per day.

There is literally no limit to the amount of tar sands development the Alberta and Canadian governments are willing to allow – despite the serious social, economic and environmental problems this growth will unleash on the world.

Most of the oil produced today is from giant, open-pit mines. Bitumen is torn from the ground and upgraded in enormous factories. This process destroys immense amounts of forest and wildlife habitat, creates toxic tailings ponds the size of lakes, and pollutes the region's rivers and streams with dangerous chemicals. The future of tar sands development relies on an a different process, called in situ (Latin for "in place") extraction. Here, steam and chemicals are injected deep underground, where the bitumen melts and is pumped to the surface. In situ extraction uses tremendous amounts of water, and because it requires turning water into steam, it uses an enormous amount of energy, which means it creates an enormous amount of climate-warming greenhouse gases.

The size and scale of Alberta's tar sands experiment is gargantuan. Together, more than 100 mining and in situ operations are dewatering the Athabasca River, poisoning streams and rivers, warming the climate, and driving caribou to extinction. It is also consuming the traditional lands of the region's First Nations people and preventing them from exercising their constitutionally protected right to hunt and fish in a region that is being turned into an industrial moonscape.

For whose benefit? Oil companies, most of which are foreign owned. This means that Canadians aren’t getting their fair share of the benefits of tar sands development, and yet they bear most of the risks.

It is the oil industry that is driving the massive expansion of the tar sands, and that expansion, in turn, is driving the construction of new and repurposed pipelines all over North America – through British Columbia to its pristine West Coast, through Central Canada and New England to the Atlantic Ocean, and through the Midwest, the breadbasket of America, to the Gulf of Mexico. As devastating spills in Michigan and Arkansas have proved, these pipelines inevitably will spill their toxic cargo along the way, poisoning waterways, polluting communities, and undermining livelihoods for thousands of people.

Perhaps the worst consequence of massive investment in tar sands expansion and the web of pipelines necessary to carry its dirty oil to market is that it locks us into relying on dirty oil for another century. This can only lead to the most catastrophic impacts of a climate warmed beyond recognition. The resulting six degree Celsius increase in global temperature will wreak havoc on the environmental, social and political stability that modern civilization requires to function.

The intractable problems and extraordinary risks of a tar sands world are just too great. Tar sands expansion must be stopped and, eventually, phased out altogether. Recent announcments, and the growing opposition to tar sands pipelines, indicates we're moving in the right direction (albeit slowly).

Stop the Expansion Updates & Resources

Tar sands inspires winning climate movement

Feature

Editors | Tar Sands Solutions - January 14th 2015

Blog Post: 2014 was a watershed year for the climate movement, which reached fever pitch last year because of the growing opposition to tar sands oil and the various pipeline proposals that would carry this dirty crude to market. "In the process of fighting, that movement has grown exponentially,” wrote Grist’s David Roberts. “It is now larger, more coherent, and more activated than it was before the Keystone battle. In sum: The climate movement picked a fight, trained, bulked up, kept at it, and now looks like it’s going to win."

New study says tar sands development must be phased out to keep climate cool

Feature

Editors | Tar Sands Solutions - January 14th 2015

Press Clipping: For years activists and scientists have been saying that extracting and burning tar sands oil is incompatible with reducing the risk of runaway climate change. Now, a new study published in the prestigious science journal Nature vindicates those who think exploiting the tar sands means it’s “game over for the climate.” “We’ve now got tangible figures of the quantities and locations of fossil fuels that should remain unused in trying to keep within the 2C temperature limit,” said Christophe McGlade, at University College London (UCL), and who led the new research.

Canadian Natural Resources defers oil sands thermal project

Nia Williams | Reuters - January 12th 2015

Press Clipping: Canadian Natural Resources Ltd, the country's largest independent oil producer, said on Monday it would defer the first phase of its 40,000-barrel-per-day Kirby North thermal project in northern Alberta until crude prices stabilize. The company, whose shares fell more than 4 percent, also cut its 2015 capital expenditure and production forecast as global oil prices continued to nosedive.

How falling oil prices could help stop the Keystone project

Jacques Leslie | Yale e360 - January 8th 2015

Press Clipping: Instead of becoming the beating heart of a North American energy superpower, the tar sands now stand poised to become a different kind of symbol. Whereas once they stood for oil production at its most excessive (with high rates of greenhouse gas emissions, massive water and soil pollution, and energy inefficiency), that notion is being turned inside out: The tar sands soon may represent a pioneering victory in combating climate change, on the first major battlefield where concern over the globe’s future overrode oil revenues.

Data proves Keystone XL is incompatible with Obama Administration’s climate commitments

Feature

Editors | Tar Sands Solutions - January 8th 2015

Blog Post: According to new research published this week, in order to prevent catastrophic global climate change, enormous amounts of fossil fuel reserves will have to be left in the ground. The study, which was published in the journal Nature, found that in order to stay within the two degree Celsius warming scenario the international community has committed to in order to combat the climate crisis, huge portions of the world’s reserves of coal, gas, and oil must remain unexploited, including 90% of U.S. coal reserves and nearly all of Canada’s tar sands.

Oil sands must remain largely unexploited to meet climate target, study finds

Feature

Ivan Semeniuk | Globe and Mail - January 8th 2015

Press Clipping: As U.S. President Barack Obama and a Republican-led Congress spar over the proposed Keystone XL pipeline, a new analysis of worldwide fossil-fuel reserves suggests that most of the Alberta oil the pipeline is meant to carry would need to remain in the ground if nations are to meet the goal of limiting global warming to two degrees Celsius.

One amazing week in the fight against the tar sands

Mike Hudema | Greenpeace Canada - November 27th 2014

Blog Post: In the fight against the tar sands there are good weeks and bad weeks and then there are weeks like this one where you can’t help but feel that we might just win. If you are a person that cares about the health of the planet, that wants Canada to listen to science, and thinks we should stand up for the rights of the First Peoples of this land then this week is one that should make you breath a little easier, at least on the tar sands front.

Keeping it in the ground

Lorne Stockman and Steve Kretzmann | Oil Change International - November 7th 2014

Blog Post: Public opposition isn't just having an impact on carbon emissions -- it's having a MASSIVE impact. This chart compares these emissions savings against those of key climate policies of the Obama Administration. Should the emissions saved from demand-side policies, such as vehicle efficiency standards (CAFE) and power plant carbon rules, be compared to those saved by supply-side changes such as the cancellation of oil production projects? We believe the answer is yes.